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April 18, 2002 Storm Chase

It all began on April 16th when I checked out the SPC Day 3 outlook, for Thursday. Although it was the Day 3 outlook, I was not going to totally believe in the forecast just yet because it could change the next time it is issued. SPC issued a slight risk for the Great Lakes region. Southwestery mid level winds were expected to be strong, and extend from the southern Rocky Mountains into the Great Lakes. In this southwestery flow, several shortwave troughs were excepted. The low was forecast to develop as it moves across lower Michigan during the afternoon hours. SPC then stated in their outlook that strong or severe convection would likely be ongoing in this area and spread eastward during the day. Things were starting to look like a severe weather setup. This outlook was starting to get my interest further, when it had said that parameters are favorable for significant severe weather and possible tornadoes. It almost sounded too good to be true, especially for a Day 3 outlook!

The next day was interesting for weather in Southern Ontario. Several supercells had developed in the afternoon hours. I was at college, unfortunately. Before my exam, I decided to check out the weather on the Internet. Sure enough, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued for the area. Great. It just had to happen during my exams, didn't it? I went outside of the college and noticed a developing supercell north of Waterloo, at 3:00 pm. It was building nicely. As it continued to grow, I noticed several pileus cap clouds. I really wish I was out there. The funny thing is that morning, I thought to myself that I should have taken my camera with me. Do'h! Several chasers were on the supercells and reported rotation. Later on, a tornado warning was issued for Peterborough. There were reports of a tornado in that area. That evening, I attended the Kitchener-Waterloo CANWARN meeting. Mark Robinson and I discussed about Thursday's potential for a chase day. We were planning to chase together. He was still unsure, and said he would give me a call on Thursday if he was going to pick me up to go chasing.

On Wednesday, the SPC Day 2 outlook issued a slight risk. The airmass in the warm sector of the low was still expected to be moist and unstable with MUCAPE values ranging from 2500 to 3500 J/Kg. Veering winds were increasing with height, which was indicating a favorable environment for tornadic supercells. However, portions of Michigan and Wisconsin were expected to upgrade to a moderate risk in later outlooks.

Later on I checked the Day 2 outlook once again. The SPC had upgraded our risk area to a moderate risk for Thursday. Tornadic supercells were still expected to develop. The inflow-sector air mass was forecast to be unstable by the afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 2000 to 3000 J/Kg, with suface dew points in the 60s deg F, and 7.5 to 8.5 deg C/Km midlevel lapse rates.

Friday looked capped. It just didn't look like things would fire. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued at 10:35 am for parts of the SW and areas along Lake Huron. Earlier, ping-pong ball size hail was reported in Little Current and a tornado was observed northwest of Tobermory. After 2:00 pm, Mark Robinson called and asked for directions on how to get to my house. I was kinda surprised because I really wasn't expecting a chase. While I waited, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for northern Grey and Bruce counties. Radar showed an intense storm crossing northern Lake Huron into that area. Shortly after, Mark showed up in his white car, laden with antennas and gear, and a "S. Ontario Storm Chaser" sign on the rear window. He checked out the RUC on Nexlab's site, and noticed it had updated. Things were starting to set up from what we saw. I noticed cloud starting to develop over Huron and Perth counties on WeatherTAP's satellite image. Was the cap going to break? Is this it? While Mark was setting up his car for the chase, I looked for libraries to use as data stops.

We left Waterloo to begin our trek across the countryside at 3:00. We took highway 86 and pulled onto regional road 17. We went through the town of Heidelberg. Our plan was to take highway 5 once we reached the town of Crosshill, down to Stratford. On the way, we heard someone mention a tornado watch on the CANWARN net, on ham radio. We were surprised. Mark exclaimed, "What?! A tornado watch?!". Ron Gravelle, our nowcastor and Kitchener-Waterloo CANWARN net controller, corrected the person, saying that it was a severe thunderstorm watch instead. Oh well, it sounded good at first! After we reached Stratford, we took highway 8 to Mitchell. The hot sun was still beating down on us. The heat felt bad for us because Mark's car, which is very old, had no air conditioning. Ahhhh! It looked like we would fry up before any storms would develop. In Mitchell, we took a break at Tim Horton's. I needed a cold drink because we had forgot to pack our water bottles. Afterwards, we decided that we needed to head further south. We found ourselves in St. Mary's and began to play the waiting game. George Kourounis was also out chasing, but he was much further southwest than we were. Things were not beginning to look too hopefull anymore. The sky was clear. George and us decided to meet up in the Fullarton area. On our way up on regional road 163, George mentioned that he saw TCU starting to build up. We couldn't see anything from where we were! We looked... and looked... and looked. Then, off in the distance, I see the TCU that George was speaking of. I pointed in the direction to show Mark. Yep. We had to go more north than where we were! As we got closer, the TCU didn't look very healthy. The shear was evident, however. The smallest TCU would even get knocked over by the shear because the updrafts were just not strong enough. By now, Mark and I were starting to lose our hopes of a good severe storm. George and us decided to meet up in Mitchell. After some difficulty finding George, we met in a parking lot. We looked at each other's chase vehicles. We just couldn't do anything else, but wait and hope. We did plenty of hoping. Later on, we hit the roads again. Mark called Ron on his cell phone. He wanted us to head north, into Listowel! I could tell right then Mark didn't feel like doing the distance. A couple of hours had gone by, and something should have fired up by now. We lost all hope. On our way towards Listowel, we decided to call the chase quits. Mark called Ron again. He told Ron that we only saw TCU that just could not go any higher because of the cap. Ron asked if we wanted to hear the good news or the bad news first. The bad news? RUC updated and showed that we lacked moisture at the 850 mb level. The good news? Indices were classic! CAPE was at 5000 J/Kg, with LI of about -10! Dang. Awesome indices, and nice blue sky... all because we had lacked the moisture and lifting force.

We decided to go to Ron's house. When we arrived at his place at 6:00 pm, we could tell that Ron was very tired and upset that nothing had fired like we had originally thought it would. If it would have fired, chances are we would have had a classic outbreak of severe storms. He said he had analyzed this storm system for 15 hours straight! That is a lot of work. He saved about 300 weather images, ranging from satellite to soundings, while we were out chasing. Ron showed us the RUC that indicated we lacked moisture. Yuck, no wonder. And not only that... the cap was at 2.5 C! We all learned. After Ron's hard work of trying to get us in the right area, we took him and his wife out to dinner as a "thank you" gift.

Notes: I would like to give special thanks to Ron Gravelle VA3TVS for his wonderful nowcasting support. He has tried his best and used what little engergy he had left to get us in the right spot. In fact, we were in the perfect area! Only if the storms would have fired, however. Thanks also goes to Mark Robinson for taking me out on my first chase of the year. At least we had all tried. We have busted, but we have learned... thanks to the wonderous cap that would never break. All in all, I still had a good time chasing with Mark and George.

Total hours: 3 hours

Distance: approx. 250 km